EMERGING MARKETS-Dollar decline and data lift lira, emerging markets

By Sujata Rao

LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - A weaker dollar and better-than-forecast economic data briefly lifted the Turkish lira to two-week highs on Monday, against a backdrop of generally firmer emerging assets and a half-percent rise in emerging equities.

Expectations of a 100-150 basis point Turkish rate rise on Dec. 14 to combat double-digit inflation have helped the lira rise off record lows. It rose 0.2 percent versus the dollar as data showed the current account deficit narrowing in October while third quarter growth accelerated.

Istanbul stocks also rose 0.7 percent to the highest in almost a month, with financials outperforming and extending gains as risks from a U.S. trial of a Turkish bank executive appeared to recede.

Analysts attributed the impressive 11 percent Q3 growth to base effects as well as the government's credit guarantee fund but saw the rate of expansion as unsustainable.

Per Hammarlund, chief emerging markets strategist at SEB, said the data and recent lira strength also raised doubts over the rate hike.

"It has made the forecast for this week's rate decision very difficult. When the lira was between 3.95 and 4.00, I thought they would have to hike, but now it's strengthened against the dollar by 3-4 percent...I'm not so sure," he said.

"They may go with a small move of 25 basis points just to do something as the market is expecting it."

More broadly, emerging stocks touched one-week highs , boosted by 1 percent gains in Hong Kong.

Chinese shares rose as much as 1.6 percent, soothed by authorities' promise they would "fully consider" the impact of planned new rules for the asset management industry.

Dollar weakness after last week's U.S. data showing slower-than-expected hourly wage growth also broadly lifted emerging market currencies, which closed at two-week lows on Friday, according to JPMorgan's currency index.

But the rand slipped 0.15 percent, jittery before inflation and current account data later this week and the ruling ANC party's conference - starting this week - to select a new leader. The rouble likewise weakened 0.4 percent on expectations the central bank will cut interest rates this Friday by at least 25 basis points (bps). Russian two-year yields have slipped to near four-year lows, down around 100 bps this year.

In the Gulf, Saudi stocks retreated from two-month highs , brought down by an 8 percent fall in the most-traded stock, the Dar al-Arkan real estate firm, shares in which are up 110 percent this year and 35 percent so far in December.

Earlier, the Philippine peso firmed to one-week highs against the dollar after Fitch raised the sovereign credit rating to BBB, two notches above junk.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2017, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2017, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see

For TURKISH market report, see

For RUSSIAN market report, see) Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg

on year

Morgan Stanley Emrg Mkt Indx 1117.60 +6.82 +0.61 +29.61

Czech Rep 1062.25 -0.10 -0.01 +15.26

Poland 2411.57 +2.74 +0.11 +23.80

Hungary 38164.10 -68.46 -0.18 +19.25

Romania 7699.41 +5.86 +0.08 +8.67

Greece 741.88 +1.16 +0.16 +15.26

Russia 1130.27 +10.73 +0.96 -1.91

South Africa 51819.97 +148.80 +0.29 +18.04

Turkey 08572.73 +651.39 +0.60 +38.95

China 3322.24 +32.25 +0.98 +7.04

India 33429.82 +179.52 +0.54 +25.55

Currencies Latest Prev Local Local

close currency currency

% change % change

in 2017

Czech Rep 25.58 25.55 -0.14 +5.57

Poland 4.20 4.20 -0.13 +4.75

Hungary 314.23 313.86 -0.12 -1.72

Romania 4.63 4.63 -0.00 -2.05

Serbia 119.50 119.52 +0.02 +3.22

Russia 59.21 59.09 -0.20 +3.47

Kazakhstan 335.47 334.75 -0.21 -0.54

Ukraine 27.14 27.10 -0.15 -0.52

South Africa 13.66 13.65 -0.07 +0.52

Kenya 103.00 103.10 +0.10 -0.61

Israel 3.52 3.52 +0.09 +9.43

Turkey 3.83 3.84 +0.16 -7.92

China 6.62 6.62 +0.05 +4.94

India 64.35 64.47 +0.19 +5.59

Brazil 3.29 3.29 +0.00 -1.17

Mexico 18.97 18.92 -0.26 +9.19

Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index

Sov'gn Debt EMBIG 314 0 .03 8 04.54 1

All data taken from Reuters at 09:38 GMT. Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S. close at 2130 GMT.

(Reporting by Sujata Rao; Additional reporting and graphic by Claire Milhench; Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky)

Sorry we are not currently accepting comments on this article.